How to check an app's revenue before you buy it

Anyone can change the numbers on a web page in their own browser in a few seconds, then take a screenshot. It's one of the most common tricks in online sales.¹ A screenshot tells you what the seller wants you to see, nothing more.

Ask for something the seller can't edit: direct read-only access, or a live screen share where they refresh the page while you watch. An honest seller expects this. Pushing back on it is a warning sign in itself.²

The best proof comes straight from the payment provider that took the money:

• Stripe lets a seller create a restricted key where each kind of data is set to none, read or write, and everything starts at none. A key with read access only can show you the numbers but can't move money or change anything.³
• Paystack doesn't offer a read-only key, but the seller can add you to their dashboard with a custom role that only lets you view.⁴ Failing that, have them export the transactions while you watch.
• Marketplaces that connect to the provider show numbers neither side can edit. Flippa, for example, marks figures from connected accounts as verified.⁵

On Prow: builders connect Stripe with a read-only key, and Prow pulls the numbers every hour. Nobody types them in, not even the builder, and the project gets a verified badge. Look for “Verified revenue” on a project page or listing. Other providers are coming.

Payment provider numbers are strong, but compare them with where the money ends up. Ask for 12 to 24 months of bank statements and check that the payouts land in the account, month by month.² The totals won't match to the naira, because the provider keeps its fees and refunds come out, but the gap should be small and steady.

Also check that the payment account belongs to the business you're buying, not to the seller personally or another company. If it doesn't, ask how it will move to you.

Once you trust the figures, make sure you're reading the right ones:

• Monthly recurring revenue (MRR) is the monthly value of active subscriptions. It leaves out tax, free plans and one-off sales.⁶ Someone who prepays a year counts as a twelfth of that each month, not all of it in one month.⁷
• One-off revenue (single purchases, setup fees, a big launch) is real money but less certain to repeat. Keep it separate.
• Churn is how many paying customers leave. Stripe counts it as customers lost in the last 30 days, divided by the active customers 30 days ago plus the new ones since.⁶ For small subscription apps, losing 3% to 7% a month is common.⁸

Slow down and ask more questions if you see any of these:²

• Churn above 5% to 7% a month, or getting worse.
• One customer paying more than 30% of all revenue. If they leave, so does a third of what you bought.
• Refunds or disputes rising in recent months.
• A sudden jump in revenue just before the listing, which may not last.
• Payments that come from the seller's own accounts, friends or family.
• Revenue going into an account that isn't the business's.

Finally, ask what it costs to run: hosting, paid tools and APIs, ads, contractors, and the hours the seller puts in. A project making ₦1 million a month that costs ₦900,000 to run is a very different buy from one that costs ₦100,000. Our guide to valuing an app that makes money shows how buyers turn revenue and costs into a price.

• You've seen revenue at the source, not in a screenshot.
• Read-only access, or a live refreshed screen share, for every payment provider.
• 12 to 24 months of bank statements match the payouts.
• The payment account belongs to the business you're buying.
• Recurring and one-off revenue are kept apart.
• You know the monthly churn and the biggest customer's share.
• You know what it costs to run, including the seller's time.